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August 2026 was Earth's hottest month on record

August 2026 was Earth's hottest month on record

Force in Play

Global temperatures hit 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels; NOAA says the El Niño will last through winter

September 10th, 2026: Copernicus confirms August as joint-hottest month

Overview

Updated Sep 11

The Earth just recorded its joint-hottest month since modern measurements began. Copernicus, the European Union's climate monitoring service, reported Thursday that August 2026 tied July 2023 at 16.96°C, 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels.

The record combines human-caused warming with an El Niño that NOAA says is all but certain to last through March 2027. The Copernicus Marine Service found marine heatwaves covered 73% of the world's oceans from June to August, a record. Drought and fires have hit Europe, and a Himalayan glacier collapse killed more than 1,300 people.

Why it matters

With El Niño still strengthening, record heat, fires, drought, and crop losses in 2026 could become the baseline for 2027.

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Key Indicators

16.96°C
Global average surface air temperature, August 2026
0.85°C above the 1991–2020 August average; tied with July 2023 as the hottest month ever measured.
1.65°C
August temperature above pre-industrial levels
First month to pass the 1.5°C Paris threshold since November 2025.
73%
Share of the global ocean hit by marine heatwaves, June–August 2026
Copernicus Marine Service says 42% of the ocean saw intense events rated strong, severe, or extreme; both figures are records.
21.07°C
Extra-polar ocean sea surface temperature, August 2026
Highest August SST on record in the ERA5 dataset, tied with March 2024 across all months.
1.8°C
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly, week of September 8
Well above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño; the 'very strong' threshold is 2°C.
8
Hottest months on record since July 2023
Every one of the eight warmest months ever measured occurred after July 2023.
35,000+
Estimated excess deaths in Europe from summer heatwaves
New Scientist's tally for the 2026 heat season; the EuroMomo network counted more than 32,000 excess deaths from mid-July to mid-August alone.

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People Involved

SB
Samantha Burgess
Strategic lead for climate, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Presented the August 2026 Copernicus climate assessment
 Friederike Otto
Friederike Otto
Climate scientist, Imperial College London; co-founder of World Weather Attribution
Commenting on the drivers of the August 2026 record
 Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather
Climate scientist, Berkeley Earth
Projecting a 75% chance 2026 beats 2024 as the warmest year on record
SG
Simon van Gennip
Head of Ocean Monitoring, Mercator Ocean International
Presented record ocean heat data for August 2026

Organizations Involved

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
European Union climate monitoring service
Publishing agency for the August 2026 record

Operates the ERA5 global temperature dataset used to confirm monthly climate records.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Federal agency
Reported the US summer heat record and tracking a strong El Niño

The US agency that tracks climate and oceans, and publishes its own temperature records.
Copernicus Marine Service
Copernicus Marine Service
European Union ocean monitoring service
Reported record ocean heat for August 2026

Tracks sea surface temperatures, currents, and marine heatwaves across the global ocean.

Timeline

July 2023 September 2026

12 events Latest: September 10th, 2026 · 2 months ago Showing 8 of 12
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Copernicus confirms August as joint-hottest month

    Latest Climate Record

    Copernicus reports August 2026 tied July 2023 as the hottest month ever, at 16.96°C.

  2. NOAA says El Niño virtually certain through March 2027

    Forecast

    NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put 100% odds on El Niño continuing through January-March 2027. The Niño 3.4 region ran 1.8°C above average in the week of September 8.

  3. Marine heatwaves cover 73% of the world's oceans

    Climate Record

    The Copernicus Marine Service found record August ocean temperatures and marine heatwaves covering 73% of the global ocean from June to August, the largest area on record.

  4. Forecasters predict El Niño peak at unprecedented intensity

    Forecast

    Phys.org reports that global forecasters expect the El Niño to peak later in 2026 at an intensity never observed in the modern record.

  5. EuroMomo counts more than 32,000 excess deaths in Europe

    Public Health

    Europe's mortality monitoring platform estimated more than 32,000 excess deaths between mid-July and mid-August, the peak of the summer's heatwaves.

  6. NOAA reports US summer hottest since Dust Bowl

    Climate Record

    US Lower 48 summer averaged 74.37°F, beating the 1936 Dust Bowl record.

  7. Himalayan glacier collapse kills more than 1,300

    Disaster

    A glacier collapse in Nepal and Tibet, linked to the heat, destroys towns and kills over a thousand people.

  8. Wildfires burn across Greece

    Wildfire

    Wildfires rage near Greek villages as heatwaves and drought persist across southern Europe.

  9. Western Europe heatwave run begins

    Extreme Weather

    An exceptional run of heatwaves begins across western Europe, continuing through the summer.

  10. Global temperatures last exceed 1.5°C

    Climate Record

    November 2025 was the last month before August 2026 to pass the 1.5°C threshold.

  11. August 2024 ties the heat record

    Climate Record

    August 2024 matched the July 2023 record, and 2024 became the warmest year on record.

  12. July 2023 becomes hottest month on record

    Climate Record

    July 2023 set the all-time monthly global heat record, the benchmark August 2026 now ties.

Scenarios

1

2026 Beats 2024 as Warmest Year on Record

Likely Resolves by Jan 15, 2027

Discussed by: Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth), AP reporting on Copernicus data

The record August, a hot summer, and an El Niño still building through autumn make it likely the full-year average edges past 2024's mark. Copernicus data shows 2026 already running near or above 2024's pace, and the El Niño temperature bump typically peaks in winter, lifting the annual average.

2

Current El Niño Becomes Strongest on Record

Possible Resolves by Mar 1, 2027

Discussed by: Copernicus forecasters, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Forecasters project the tropical Pacific El Niño will keep strengthening through winter, potentially rivaling the 2015-16 super El Niño, whose peak Oceanic Niño Index reached about 2.6°C. Sustained intensification would keep pushing global temperatures up and amplify drought and fire risk across the western Pacific and beyond.

3

2027 Reaches 1.8°C Above Pre-Industrial

Uncertain Resolves by Jan 15, 2028

Discussed by: Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

Hausfather told the AP that if the strong El Niño carries into 2027, that year could reach as high as 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, beating both 2026 and 2024. A record El Niño decaying through 2027 would add lingering ocean heat to the continued human-caused warming trend.

4

La Niña Follows in 2027-28

Possible Resolves by Q1 2028

Discussed by: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

NOAA notes that strong El Niño events are usually followed by a moderate-to-strong La Niña by the next fall and winter. A La Niña would cool the tropical Pacific and slow the global temperature rise, though lingering ocean heat could still make 2027 a record year.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2015-2016

Super El Niño of 2015-16 (2015-2016)

A strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific pushed global temperatures to records in 2015 and 2016, causing droughts, floods, and fires across multiple continents, including the worst coral bleaching on record in the Great Barrier Reef.

Then

2016 became the hottest year on record at the time, and parts of Asia, Africa, and the Americas saw severe drought.

Now

Established the pattern where El Niño years set new global temperature records on top of the warming trend.

Why this matters now

The current event follows the same pattern — a strong El Niño amplifying human-caused warming — and could push past the records set after 2016.

2023-2024

El Niño and the 2023-24 heat records (2023-2024)

An El Niño that developed in mid-2023 helped drive July 2023 to become the hottest month on record and made 2024 the warmest year on record, with the first annual breach of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Then

2024's annual average reached about 1.6°C above pre-industrial.

Now

Set the benchmark August 2026 now ties and the annual record 2026 is chasing.

Why this matters now

August 2026 tied the July 2023 record, and this El Niño could produce a similar or stronger spike.

Summer 1936

Dust Bowl heat of 1936 (1936)

The US summer of 1936, during the Dust Bowl drought, set heat records across the Lower 48 states that stood for 90 years.

Then

NOAA reported summer 2026 in the Lower 48 averaged 74.37°F, nearly four tenths of a degree warmer than the 1936 mark.

Now

Showed how quickly long-standing climate benchmarks can fall during a hot season.

Why this matters now

A 90-year US record fell within a single season, the same season the globe set its joint-hottest month.

Sources

(16)
+10
NPR Copernicus Climate Change Service Reuters BBC The Guardian CNN New Scientist Associated Press via ClickOrlando Phys.org The Independent The National Yale Climate Connections Copernicus Marine Service Scientific American Washington Post Phys.org