NOAA declares El Niño has formed, forecasts a very strong event
Built WorldForecasters put the odds of a record-class winter event at 63 percent, nearly double their May estimate.
June 12th, 2026: WMO issues 'Prepare for El Niño' bulletin, calls for global actionNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Overview
Updated Jun 12NOAA declared El Niño on June 11. The odds of a 'very strong' winter event are now 63 percent, nearly double the May estimate. The World Meteorological Organization followed within days, urging all countries to bolster early warning systems before the event strengthens.
For the US, the most immediate near-term effect may be a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño drives stronger winds across the tropical Atlantic, disrupting storm formation. NOAA's May forecast put named storms at 8 to 14; the El Niño declaration reinforces it.
Why it matters
A stronger El Niño brings a wetter southern US, milder north, swings in heating and crop costs, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes this fall.
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People Involved
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The NOAA division that monitors El Niño and issues US seasonal climate outlooks.
The United Nations agency that coordinates global weather, climate, and water monitoring across 193 member states.
Timeline
March 2026 June 2026
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WMO issues 'Prepare for El Niño' bulletin, calls for global action
Latest International ResponseThe World Meteorological Organization launched its June–August 2026 El Niño bulletin, giving an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions through August. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged all countries to strengthen early warning systems, warning the event could worsen droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves on land and in the ocean.
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NOAA declares El Niño has arrived
DeclarationAfter five straight months of above-threshold warming, NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory. It raised the odds of a very strong winter event to 63 percent.
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May outlook keeps very-strong odds modest
ForecastNOAA's May update put the chance of a very strong winter event near one in three.
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NOAA issues an El Niño Watch
ForecastForecasters flagged warming Pacific waters and said El Niño was likely to form within months.
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Pacific returns to neutral
BackgroundWeak La Niña conditions faded, leaving the tropical Pacific near its long-term average and primed to warm.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1982–83 El Niño
A very strong El Niño caught forecasters off guard, with limited ocean monitoring at the time. It brought severe drought to Australia and flooding to the Americas, and devastated Peru's anchovy fishery.
Worldwide damage ran into the billions, with major losses in farming and fishing.
The surprise spurred build-out of the Pacific buoy network that now underpins El Niño forecasts.
It shows why early advisories like this one matter: the monitoring NOAA now relies on grew out of being blindsided in 1982.
1997–98 El Niño
One of the strongest El Niños ever recorded brought floods to California and Peru, drought and fires to Indonesia, and a record run of Pacific super typhoons. Pacific waters ran more than 2°C above average for months.
Floods, fires, and storms killed thousands and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage worldwide.
It became the benchmark scientists use to define a very strong event and reshaped how agencies forecast and prepare for ENSO.
NOAA's 2026 forecast points to an event that could rival 1997-98 in raw ocean warmth, the closest modern yardstick.
2015–16 El Niño
A very strong El Niño coincided with a sharp jump in global temperatures, making 2015 and then 2016 the warmest years on record at the time. It drove drought in southern Africa, flooding in South America, and a busy Pacific cyclone season.
Tens of millions faced food and water shortages; coral reefs bleached worldwide.
It showed how a strong El Niño can stack on top of background warming to break heat records.
It is the most recent very strong event and the clearest preview of the global heat a strong 2026 El Niño could bring.
