The US-Russia-China triangle

Overview

Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 and left May 15 with a trade truce and Boeing jet orders. Putin followed four days later; on May 20, he and Xi signed more than 40 agreements and issued a 9,935-word declaration against US missile defenses. The gas pipeline Moscow had flagged as a 'substantial step' did not materialize.

The trade numbers reveal the imbalance. Russia is China's largest crude supplier, but Moscow accounts for just 4% of Beijing's total trade. Xi can afford to drag out pipeline pricing; Putin, locked out of European energy markets since 2022, cannot.

Why it matters

How Xi prices the Power of Siberia 2 deal will determine whether Russia gets an energy lifeline or faces a slow squeeze.

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Key Indicators

4 days

Gap between Trump and Putin Beijing visits

First time the US and Russian leaders have visited the same country in the same week outside a multilateral summit.

Years since Russia-China friendship treaty

The 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness is the legal backbone of the bilateral relationship. Putin and Xi signed a 25th-anniversary joint declaration in Beijing on May 20.

1.86M bpd

Russian seaborne oil to China, Jan 2026

Up 46% year-on-year in January; Russian crude exports to China grew 35% in Q1 2026. Russia is now China's largest crude supplier, ahead of Saudi Arabia.

Russia's share of China's total trade

China is Russia's largest trading partner, but Moscow is a minor partner for Beijing. That gap gives Xi leverage to hold out on Power of Siberia 2 pricing.

40+

Agreements signed at May 20 Beijing summit

Covering trade, technology, nuclear energy, media, and automobiles. Four new VVER-1200 nuclear reactor units were included. Power of Siberia 2 was not.

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People Involved

Vladimir Putin

Returned from Beijing after two-day summit; secured 40+ cooperation agreements but no Power of Siberia 2 deal

Xi Jinping

Completed back-to-back hosting of Trump (May 13-15) and Putin (May 19-20); signed 40+ Russia-China agreements while holding off on pipeline pricing commitment

Donald Trump

Returned from first Beijing state visit by a sitting US president since 2017

Timeline

July 2001 May 2026

12 events Latest: May 20th, 2026 · 3 months ago Showing 8 of 12

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May 2026
Power of Siberia 2 talks revive but pricing gap blocks deal
Latest Energy

Putin and Xi revived talks on the 2,600-km Yamal-to-China pipeline but left without a signed agreement. Beijing wants gas priced near Russia's domestic market rate; Moscow wants roughly double. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said both sides had reached 'an understanding on the project's main parameters.'
May 20th, 2026
Putin arrives in Beijing for two-day Xi summit
Summit

Scheduled to sign joint declaration with Xi and discuss energy and trade with Premier Li Qiang.
May 19th, 2026
Kremlin announces Putin's Beijing visit
Announcement

Putin will travel to China May 19-20 to meet Xi and Premier Li Qiang. The two sides will sign a 25th-anniversary joint declaration.
May 16th, 2026
Trump leaves Beijing with trade truce intact
Summit

Tariff suspensions and rare-earths rollback preserved. Xi accepts return visit to the US in the fall. No Taiwan deal.
May 15th, 2026
Xi warns Trump on Taiwan as summit opens
Summit

Xi tells Trump that mishandling Taiwan will put ties in 'great jeopardy.' Two sides agree to a 'constructive, strategic and stable' framework.
May 14th, 2026
Trump arrives in Beijing for state visit
Diplomatic

First Beijing visit by a sitting US president since 2017. Delayed from April by the Iran war.
May 13th, 2026
Putin signals 'substantial step' on China energy
Statement

Russian leader previews oil and gas deliverables for the upcoming Beijing summit, hinting at pipeline progress.
May 9th, 2026
April 2026
Lavrov visits Beijing to prepare Putin trip
Diplomatic

Russian foreign minister meets Xi and counterpart Wang Yi. Agenda covers energy, payments, and Ukraine.
April 15th, 2026
February 2026
Putin-Xi video call sets 2026 visit
Diplomatic

Xi calls for a 'grand plan' to deepen ties. Putin accepts invitation to visit China in the first half of the year.
February 4th, 2026
February 2022
Russia invades Ukraine
Conflict

Western sanctions cut Russia off from dollar markets. China becomes the lifeline for oil sales and yuan settlements.
February 24th, 2022
Putin-Xi declare 'no-limits' partnership in Beijing
Diplomatic

Joint statement issued at the Winter Olympics, 20 days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
February 4th, 2022
July 2001
Russia and China sign Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness
Treaty

The 20-year treaty became the legal foundation of the bilateral relationship. It was extended for five years in 2021.
July 16th, 2001

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Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

February 1972

Nixon's visit to China (1972)

President Richard Nixon flew to Beijing and met Mao Zedong, ending two decades of frozen relations. The trip exploited the Sino-Soviet split, which had broken into border clashes in 1969. Henry Kissinger had laid the groundwork in secret talks the previous year.

Then

The Shanghai Communique reopened US-China relations and gave Washington new leverage in arms talks with Moscow.

Now

The triangle frame Nixon set, playing one rival against another, became standard great-power strategy for the next fifty years.

Why this matters now

Nixon's move worked because he had the wedge in the third corner. This week Xi sits in that corner, hosting Washington and Moscow in turn.

May 1989

Gorbachev's Beijing visit (1989)

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev arrived in Beijing for the first Sino-Soviet summit in thirty years, ending the rift that had started under Khrushchev. The visit coincided with the Tiananmen Square protests, which were still ongoing when he met Deng Xiaoping.

Then

The two sides normalized state and party ties. The Tiananmen crackdown followed weeks later, ending the political opening Gorbachev's visit had partly enabled.

Now

Russia and China rebuilt the relationship that has since become the 'no-limits partnership.' The 2001 friendship treaty grew out of this thaw.

Why this matters now

The current treaty Putin is celebrating in Beijing began here. Today's anniversary is the closing of a loop that started thirty-seven years ago.

February 2022

Putin-Xi 'no-limits' declaration (2022)

Putin met Xi in Beijing on the opening day of the Winter Olympics and signed a 5,000-word joint statement declaring 'no limits' to their cooperation. Twenty days later, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Then

Western governments treated the declaration as evidence of coordinated revisionism. China publicly disputed that reading but expanded oil purchases and yuan trade with Russia.

Now

The phrase has become shorthand for the partnership, even as Beijing has quietly distanced itself from it. The 2026 treaty anniversary is the next test of how 'limitless' the partnership actually is.

Why this matters now

Four years of war later, the bills from that declaration are coming due. Putin needs Beijing to pay them. Xi has to decide what it costs him.