1
Fed Hikes at Both October and December Meetings
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: CME FedWatch futures data, cited by CBS News
Traders see a 70% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's October meeting and a 56% chance in December. Two hikes would put the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%. If oil stays above $100 and inflation holds near 3.4%, some analysts expect further increases in 2027.
2
30-year Yields Fall Below 5% as Iran Conflict Eases
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2027
Discussed by: Alessandro Gabellone at Bank Degroof Petercam, via Swissinfo
Gabellone argues a Middle East resolution would relieve European rates through the energy channel. If oil falls from $105, inflation expectations cool and long yields could drop sharply. The 10-year yield traded below 4% as recently as early 2025, so the round trip would be steep.
3
Treasury Formalizes Yield-Curve Defense
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Straits Times reporting on Bessent's interventions
Bessent has already expanded buybacks of 20- and 30-year debt and bought yen to stop Japan selling Treasuries. If yields keep climbing, he could move to a formal yield-curve control program, capping long-term rates. That would be a historic step for the US, which has not tried such a policy outside wartime. Japan's own yield-cap experiment shows how hard such a policy is to unwind.
4
30-Year Yield Breaches 6% Before Year-End
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey of 173 market participants
53% of respondents expect the 30-year yield to top 6% before the end of the year, a level last seen in June 2000. That would need another leg up from 5.47%, with inflation, debt supply, and AI-era corporate borrowing all still pushing rates higher.
5
Strait of Hormuz Deal Cuts Oil and Yields
Unlikely
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Discussed by: Reuters and Wall Street Journal reporting on Iran-US diplomacy
Iran says it is waiting for a US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The Wall Street Journal reports President Trump has rejected the plan. If talks nonetheless produce a reopening, oil could fall from above $100, cooling inflation and pulling bond yields down with it.
6
Fed Pauses at October Meeting
Possible
Resolves by Oct 28, 2026
Discussed by: Market expectations after Williams' comments, per Asia Business Daily
Williams' "no need to rush" signal and softened inflation data have cut odds of an October hike to about 50%. If the Fed holds, it would mark a pivot from the September hike and give long yields room to fall if the data turns softer.
