US-China Phase One trade deal (2020)
The US and China signed a Phase One trade deal in January 2020, ending a two-year tariff war. China committed to buy $200 billion more in US goods over two years, including $36.5 billion in agricultural purchases in 2020.
COVID-19 disrupted global trade, and China fell short of the agricultural purchase targets in 2020.
The shortfall became a recurring point of friction, and the deal's enforcement mechanism was never fully tested.
Shows that large purchase commitments are hard to meet, and shortfalls carry political costs. The current 25 million-ton soybean target faces the same risk.
