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Solar overtakes coal in Texas power grid

Solar overtakes coal in Texas power grid

Built World

EIA forecasts utility-scale solar to outproduce coal in ERCOT for the first time on record in 2026

May 13th, 2026: EIA forecasts solar over coal for full year

Overview

Coal has powered Texas for most of the past century. In 2026, for the first time on record, utility-scale solar is forecast to outproduce it for the full year in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects 78 billion kilowatt-hours from solar versus 60 billion from coal in 2026. Solar hit a 72.74% grid penetration record on May 2. The exception is winter: coal leads in January and December, reinforced by Winter Storm Fern in January 2026, which triggered Department of Energy orders for maximum plant output.

Why it matters

Texas was America's coal stronghold. If solar outproduces it there, the same shift is plausible anywhere: cheaper power, but new winter-reliability questions.

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Key Indicators

78 BkWh
Solar generation forecast
ERCOT utility-scale solar projected for 2026, up from about 60 billion kWh in 2025.
60 BkWh
Coal generation forecast
ERCOT coal projected for 2026, below solar on an annual basis for the first time.
12%
Solar share, 2025
Solar's share of ERCOT generation in 2025, tripled from 4% in 2021.
13%
Coal share, 2025
Coal's share of ERCOT generation in 2025, down from 19% in 2021.
40%
US solar additions in Texas
Texas's share of 2026 utility-scale solar capacity additions nationwide.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ambrose Bierce

Ambrose Bierce

(1842-1914) · Gilded Age · wit

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"Texas, that sovereign republic of self-reliance, has traded one extraction for another — coal dug from the earth at the cost of men's lungs, now replaced by light harvested from a sun that sends no invoice and employs no lobby. Yet observe how faithfully winter reminds us that nature remains the final authority, tolerating our progress only until she is displeased."

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Timeline

January 2018 May 2026

11 events Latest: May 13th, 2026 · 1 month ago Showing 8 of 11
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. EIA forecasts solar over coal for full year

    Latest Forecast

    Short-Term Energy Outlook projects 78 BkWh solar versus 60 BkWh coal in ERCOT for 2026.

  2. ERCOT solar sets 72.74% grid penetration record

    Milestone

    Solar covers nearly three-quarters of ERCOT demand at peak on May 2, setting a new penetration record for the grid.

  3. Winter Storm Fern triggers DOE emergency orders for ERCOT

    Weather

    Extreme cold drives demand higher and ERCOT requests DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders, letting plants exceed environmental permit limits to maximize output. Coal and gas generation rise sharply as solar and wind output falls; new batteries and post-Uri plant weatherization keep the grid from major blackouts.

  4. Solar passes coal in annual ERCOT mix

    Milestone

    Solar share reaches 12% versus coal at 13%. Solar becomes third-largest source after gas and wind.

  5. Texas solar sets generation record

    Milestone

    Solar reaches 29.8 GW, supplying over 40% of state demand for seven straight hours.

  6. Texas legislature kills anti-renewables bills

    Legislation

    SB 819 and SB 715, which would have restricted solar and wind permitting, die in the Texas House.

  7. Solar exceeds coal monthly in ERCOT

    Milestone

    ERCOT solar generates 4.33 BkWh in March 2025 versus coal's 4.16 BkWh — first monthly crossover.

  8. Vistra plans Coleto Creek gas conversion

    Industry

    Vistra announces plan to repower Coleto Creek coal plant as natural gas by 2027.

  9. Winter Storm Uri triggers Texas grid crisis

    Disaster

    Cold snap forces rolling blackouts across ERCOT; hundreds die. Lawmakers demand grid reforms.

  10. Wind generation surpasses coal in Texas

    Milestone

    ERCOT wind output exceeds in-state coal for the first time on an annual basis.

  11. Vistra retires three large Texas coal plants

    Industry

    Big Brown, Monticello, and Sandow shut down, citing low gas prices and cheaper renewables.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

April 2015 – 2016

U.S. natural gas overtakes coal (2016)

Natural gas surpassed coal as the largest source of U.S. electricity in April 2015 on a monthly basis, then again for the full year in 2016. Hydraulic fracturing had pushed wholesale gas prices to multi-decade lows, undercutting coal even at older, paid-off plants.

Then

Hundreds of U.S. coal plants retired or converted to gas between 2010 and 2020. Coal mining employment fell by about half.

Now

Coal's share of U.S. generation fell from 50% in 2000 to roughly 16% in 2024. Gas remains the largest source, with renewables now closing the gap.

Why this matters now

The same economics-driven displacement is now happening at the state level, with solar replacing coal instead of gas. The 2016 shift started as a forecast and held.

2019

Wind overtakes coal in Texas (2019)

Texas wind generation exceeded in-state coal output on an annual basis for the first time in 2019. Wind had grown for a decade under federal production tax credits, ERCOT's open-access transmission build-out, and the competitive wholesale market.

Then

Wind capacity in ERCOT continued to grow, passing 35 gigawatts by 2024.

Now

Texas became the largest wind producer in the United States. Coal's share fell from 38% of state generation in 2013 to 13% by 2025.

Why this matters now

Texas has done this before. Solar is following the same trajectory wind did, about six years later. The state's market design rewards the cheapest generator, regardless of fuel.

September 2024

United Kingdom closes its last coal plant (September 2024)

Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station in Nottinghamshire shut down on September 30, 2024, ending 142 years of coal-fired electricity in Britain. The country had set a 2025 coal phase-out target in 2015 and met it a year early.

Then

The UK now relies on gas, nuclear, wind, and solar. Wholesale electricity prices did not spike from the closure.

Now

Britain became the first G7 nation to fully phase out coal. Power-sector carbon emissions are at their lowest level since the 19th century.

Why this matters now

Shows the endpoint of the trajectory Texas began this year. Once gas and renewables undercut coal economically, the displacement can run all the way to zero.

Sources

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